Last year, the energy storage industry experienced a roller-coaster market treatment, from the darling of capital to facing the embarrassing situation of «excess at the beginning». Even many, many players did not even eat dividends, and directly entered the «sea of blood» game. However, in fact, the key components of some energy storage systems are still in short supply. A few years ago, the new type of energy storage in China ushered in a big outbreak, especially lithium energy storage, which is loved by capital, and the number of enterprises has also begun to surge. With the entry of many new players, a direct impact is that the price of expensive energy storage systems that have been criticized by the market in the past has finally ushered in a sharp decline. Of course, the rapid decline in prices is not a good thing, and the negative feedback is due to the rapid decline in prices, which leads to poor economy of the energy storage industry, and also limits the development of the energy storage industry to a certain extent. On the other hand, the influx of too much energy storage industry has not only caused the intensification of competition, but also led to the current low energy storage utilization. According to the research report of China Electric Power Union in 2022, the average equivalent utilization coefficient of electrochemical energy storage projects is 12.2%, and the new energy distribution and storage coefficient is only 6.1%. Many energy storage power stations are built instead of being used, resulting in a waste of resources. One fundamental reason is that, compared with Europe and the United States, China’s electricity price peak valley price difference is not large, subsidies are relatively small, so the economy of energy storage system is poor. For this issue, Liu Hanyuan, chairman of the Board of directors of Tongwei Group, said in an interview with the media that the excess capacity of energy storage is normal, and the demand scale of the photovoltaic industry may be more than 10 times that of today to achieve the goal of human energy transformation and carbon neutrality in the future. In the long run, it is essential to be able to effectively promote the energy transition. At present, photovoltaic has taken advantage of all renewable energy sources, and is expected to become about 50%-75% of the primary energy source in the future, becoming the real mainstream renewable energy. In addition, recently, all over the country began to vigorously promote the landing of new energy + energy storage projects, if the speed can be properly controlled, the future may form more than 10 trillion or even larger industrial scale, as a driving force for economic development. Different from the common perception in the market, some semiconductor parts in energy storage are gradually out of the market due to quality problems, cost problems or product innovation can not keep up with demand, such as IGBT, energy storage converters, photovoltaic inverters, etc. According to industry insiders, the research and development and manufacturing of each key component in the current energy storage system has a very high threshold, and some companies in the industry claim to cover the whole industry chain, which is not likely to succeed. Although some current products, such as energy storage telecommunications with rapid capacity expansion, the existing capacity is greater than the market demand, but in the long run, this is conducive to the development of the energy storage industry. As the basic component of energy storage, the utilization rate of the battery cell is declining rapidly with the expansion of production capacity, and the data show that the overall capacity utilization rate of the battery cell dropped from 87% in 2022 to less than 50% in the first half of 2023. Even the lowest price of the battery cell has been close to 0.4 yuan /Wh, which means that the company can only make profits when the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is below 100,000 yuan/ton. This situation has led to the rapid expansion of energy storage products, but the quality of the products is uneven, and the quality of the relevant domestic energy storage components cannot fully meet the requirements for the time being, so the market shows a strange phenomenon that the product begins to roll, but the energy storage related devices are in short supply. For example, energy storage converters (PCS) are still relatively scarce in the market. The technical complexity and integration complexity of its products are higher than that of photovoltaic inverters. For example, energy storage converters need to be able to accurately and quickly adjust voltage, frequency and power between the grid and the energy storage system. This requires the energy storage converter to have the ability to convert the direct current into alternating current output to the power grid, and also to rectify the alternating current of the power grid into direct current for charging. And as a bridge connecting the power grid and the battery storage system, its stability is crucial to the efficiency of the entire energy storage system. Therefore, improving the reliability of PCS to cope with various environmental conditions and long operation times is a major challenge in research and development. In terms of integration, the hardware design includes many electronic components and power electronic devices, and its assembly, heat dissipation design, electromagnetic compatibility design and so on have high technical challenges. At the same time, in software, complex control strategies and protection mechanisms, such as dynamic response speed, battery management system (BMS) interface coordination, fault diagnosis and rapid protection, maximum power point tracking (MPPT), etc., require sophisticated software algorithms. This is also an important reason for the short supply of energy storage related parts products, but for domestic related enterprises, with the rapid growth of the energy storage market, compared with the fierce competition in the downstream market, the important parts market in energy storage related products is still a blue ocean. The outbreak of the energy storage market has attracted the entry of many capital, but also increased market competition, resulting in the energy storage market has not eaten the crab, it has fallen into the inner volume. However, unlike the product, its upstream relevant important component market is still a blue ocean, which may be a new opportunity for domestic related enterprises.
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